Kia Australia is launching the EV4, its first non-SUV electric vehicle, but the company has set remarkably modest sales targets. Despite pricing the EV4 competitively against popular models like the Tesla Model 3 and BYD Seal – starting at $49,990 – Kia projects only around 70 units sold per month in Australia. This contrasts sharply with Tesla and BYD, which routinely move 300-600 units monthly.
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Sales Projections and Market Context
The conservative forecast breaks down to approximately 28 units each for the base Air and top-spec GT-Line trims, with the remaining 14 units allocated to the mid-range Earth variant. Kia’s product planning GM, Roland Rivero, notes that production isn’t restricted, suggesting that increased demand could be met if Australian buyers show stronger interest.
This low initial target is significant because it reveals how Kia views the EV4’s role in its lineup. Unlike Tesla or BYD, which have established strong EV demand, Kia appears to be testing the waters with a smaller launch volume. This approach reduces risk while still capitalizing on the Australian government’s New Vehicle Efficiency Standard (NVES) credits, which incentivize EV imports.
Production and Cost Considerations
Rivero explains that the EV4’s development for right-hand drive markets like the UK already covers much of the homologation costs for Australia. This makes it financially viable to bring in even a small volume of units. The car arrives from Korea alongside existing Kia models, minimizing logistical overhead.
The decision to prioritize low-volume EV sales over higher-volume internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles is telling. As Dean Norbiato, Kia’s marketing GM, points out, the NVES credits generated by EVs far outweigh the benefits of importing lower-volume ICE alternatives, even if those alternatives sold slightly better.
Kia’s Broader EV Strategy
Kia was Australia’s third-largest EV importer in 2025, moving 8,131 units. Sales jumped 125.4% year-over-year, driven by the EV5 SUV (4,787 units), which ranked fourth in overall EV sales behind Tesla’s Model Y and BYD’s Sealion 7. The EV4 is expected to become Kia’s third-best-selling EV, surpassing the discontinued Niro.
This data demonstrates a clear trend: legacy automakers are cautiously entering the EV market while established EV brands dominate sales. Kia’s approach with the EV4 reflects this measured expansion, prioritizing financial incentives and minimizing risk.
Future EV Lineup
Kia plans to expand its EV portfolio further in mid-2026 with the PV5 Cargo commercial van. Overseas, the PV5 also comes in passenger and pickup versions, though their Australian availability remains unconfirmed.
In conclusion, Kia’s low sales expectations for the EV4 highlight a strategic approach to EV adoption. The company is leveraging government incentives and minimizing risk while testing demand in the Australian market. This cautious strategy underscores the broader industry trend of legacy automakers gradually entering the EV space, while established players continue to lead sales.
