UK car dealers just survived their busiest June since the pandemic. Electric sales skyrocketed. Manufacturers still have no clue how to hit the government’s goals.
The numbers tell two stories
Registrations jumped 11.4% in June. That puts 213,16 cars on the road. It’s the best month since 2019, technically speaking. But look closer.
The SMMT says this entire uptick was driven by electrified vehicles. The choice is there now. Brands are finally moving their product lines forward. Plug-in hybrids grabbed a 12.5% slice of the market, up from 11.2%. Sales of those hybrids rose nearly 25%. Hybrid sales overall did similar.
But electric cars stole the show. Their market share jumped from 24.8% straight to 30%. It is the highest figure of the year. Nearly the highest ever. High petrol prices did their job.
A “seismic shift” in demand, Renault called it earlier this year.
Back in April, fossil fuel prices spiked because of the Iran war situation. Renault saw a 42% surge in website enquiries. For one month, EVs made up nearly half their sales. It wasn’t an isolated incident, it was a symptom.
The mandate math doesn’t add up
So we are at 25% overall EV share for the year. Great? Not exactly. The government demands a 33% mix by 2026 under the ZEV mandate.
To hit that average before December ends, manufacturers would need EVs to comprise over 40% of monthly sales every single month from now on. Do you think that’s happening? Probably not. Internal combustion engines still hold three-quarters of the market. That gap isn’t closing fast enough.
The SMMT admits they are relying on flexibilities in the mandate scheme. But those lemons are being squeezed dry. Natural demand is stalling. It hurts profitability. It scares off investors. It crushes residual values.
Is the goal even realistic?
We have more choice. We have cars under £40,000 eligible for grants. The uptake is sluggish anyway. The government is currently talking to car makers about the next phase. The current target is an 80% EV market by 2030.
To get there, the EV mix must jump by 220%. Just four years away. One hundred percent of industry leaders say this is unachievable. They all say the same thing.
The cars are getting cheaper. The range is getting longer. But the infrastructure of belief isn’t keeping pace with the politics. Someone needs to adjust the math before the crash lands.
